Climate scenarios
The table shows GLOBAL average surface warming in 2081–2100 relative to 1850–1900, assessed in IPCC AR6. These are total changes since the pre-industrial baseline, not extra warming from 2026 or temperatures for Nordic towns. Each range is conditional on its emissions pathway. The three illustrative pathways are not assigned probabilities and do not cover every possible outcome.
| Emissions pathway | Averaging period | Best estimate | Very likely range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low emissions · SSP1-2.6 | 2081–2100 | +1.8°C | +1.3 to +2.4°C |
| Intermediate emissions · SSP2-4.5 | 2081–2100 | +2.7°C | +2.1 to +3.5°C |
| Very high emissions · SSP5-8.5 | 2081–2100 | +4.4°C | +3.3 to +5.7°C |
From 2026: the next 25 years
Use this horizon to consider buildings, drainage, summer heat and winter activities. Natural variability still produces cold winters and wet or dry summers within a warming climate. Look at several models and decades together; a single simulated year cannot establish the conditions a household or municipality will face.
2041–2060: choices increasingly matter
Differences between emissions pathways become increasingly important around mid-century. Planning benefits from comparing several plausible futures. Regional assessments add information about season, terrain and coastline that a global average cannot supply. These assessment windows overlap the near-term planning horizon; they are not separate weather forecasts.
2081–2100: compare the scenarios
The table summarises twenty-year global averages, with a best estimate and a very likely uncertainty range. A value is neither an annual maximum nor a local forecast. Lower emissions limit long-term warming, while the very high pathway illustrates a substantially warmer outcome.
2101–2126: a longer horizon, no invented numbers
The temperature table stops at 2100. We do not extend its values in a straight line to 2126. Some changes continue beyond 2100: global mean sea level continues rising as oceans and land ice adjust over centuries. The amount at an individual Nordic coast also depends on regional ocean conditions and land movement.
What changes across the Nordic region?
Norway faces heavier short-duration rainfall, while parts of southern and southeastern Norway can also face greater summer drought risk. For Denmark, regional assessments help examine cloudbursts, relative sea-level rise and storm surges. A rainfall projection alone does not locate future street flooding; drainage and terrain matter.
Sweden is projected to warm in every season, particularly in the north during winter, with growing heat-related risks. Finland generally faces shorter snow seasons, with larger reductions in the south than in Lapland. Snowy winters remain possible, and local high-altitude conditions can differ from the regional trend.
In Iceland, glacier retreat and changes in meltwater are important parts of the outlook. North Atlantic variability affects regional conditions. For a specific place, use national climate services and compare the scenario, averaging period and baseline before transferring any number to a local decision.
Questions about the weather calendar
Can you forecast the weather 100 years ahead?
No. Climate projections describe changing averages, variability and extremes under stated assumptions. They cannot predict the temperature or rainfall on a particular day a century from now.
Is the middle scenario the most likely future?
Not simply because it is the middle row. The pathways depend on future emissions and societal choices. Their uncertainty ranges describe climate outcomes within each pathway, not the chance that society follows that pathway.